Eluned Morgan Highlights Potential Impact of May Elections on UK Unity

The scheduled 2026 Senedd election and recent polling have prompted procedural statements from Welsh political leaders about the future of the United Kingdom’s structure.

Eluned Morgan, who serves as the First Minister of Wales and leads Welsh Labour, stated that the May elections could result in “profound implications” for the UK. She said there is “a real possibility” that the outcome might set a path toward the breakup of the United Kingdom if certain conditions are met.

In her public comments, Morgan said the country could fragment if nationalist leaders take power in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales following the elections. She also stated in a separate interview that there is a “danger” of the UK breaking up if nationalist parties gain control of all devolved governments.

According to Morgan, if powers are not devolved to the Senedd, Wales could begin to follow a path of nationalism. She said this shift could threaten the future of the United Kingdom, emphasizing the importance of devolution in her remarks.

What the numbers show

• The 2026 Senedd election is scheduled for 7 May 2026
• A YouGov poll predicted Labour’s vote share at 18%
• Plaid Cymru and Reform UK were projected at 30% and 25% respectively in the same poll

Recent opinion polling has indicated that Labour could fall to third place in Wales during the May elections. The polling suggests Plaid Cymru and Reform UK might surpass Labour in vote share, according to data reported by The Independent.

The YouGov poll, conducted for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, projected that Labour’s support could decrease to 18%. The same poll placed Plaid Cymru at 30% and Reform UK at 25%, reflecting a shift in voter preferences compared to previous elections.

These polling figures have been cited in media reports as part of the context for Morgan’s statements about the political landscape in Wales. The data provides a quantitative background to the procedural concerns raised by Welsh Labour’s leadership regarding the outcome of the upcoming election.

Eluned Morgan’s comments and the polling data together illustrate the current procedural discussions within Welsh politics about the future structure of the United Kingdom and the potential role of devolved governments following the 2026 Senedd election.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.