Prediction Markets Gain Regulatory Pathway in Canada

Canadian regulators have established a framework allowing certain firms to offer forecast contracts, marking a shift from previous restrictions on prediction markets in the country.

Interactive Brokers Canada became the first firm regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) to receive permission to provide forecast contracts in 2025. In early 2026, Wealthsimple was also approved by CIRO to offer event contracts based on economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends, but not on sports or election outcomes.

CIRO’s regulatory terms specify that only event contracts related to economic, environmental, or financial forecasts with a minimum maturity of 30 days are permitted. Contracts involving sports, elections, or other political events remain explicitly excluded from approval under these guidelines.

Questrade has indicated an intention to seek CIRO approval for offering event contracts, with a possible launch as early as summer 2026. This interest follows the recent authorizations granted to other Canadian firms within the regulated framework.

What the numbers show

• Between 2024 and 2025, global prediction-market trading volume rose from US$15.8 billion to US$63.5 billion
• CIRO requires a minimum maturity of 30 days for permitted event contracts
• A report projects global annual trading volume in prediction markets could reach US$1 trillion by decade’s end

The regulatory landscape for prediction markets in Canada has evolved since 2017, when the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) banned the advertising and trading of short-term binary options with maturities under 30 days for retail investors. This ban targeted yes-or-no contracts and restricted their availability to the public.

In 2025, the Ontario Securities Commission finalized a settlement with Polymarket, barring the platform from operating in Ontario and imposing a penalty for offering event contracts that contravened the CSA’s binary options ban. Despite this, Polymarket has continued to operate in other Canadian provinces.

Regulatory authorities, including the CSA and CIRO, have stated that any platform offering event contracts classified as securities or derivatives must comply with relevant legislation or face enforcement measures. This requirement applies to all firms seeking to participate in the Canadian prediction market sector.

Industry reaction

Questrade has publicly stated its interest in entering the event contract market, referencing the recent regulatory approvals granted to other firms. The company has indicated it is pursuing CIRO authorization with a potential launch timeline in 2026.

The CSA and CIRO have both stated that compliance with securities or derivatives legislation is mandatory for any platform facilitating event contracts, and that enforcement actions will be taken against non-compliant operators.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.