UK Government Releases Security Assessment on Biodiversity Loss

The UK government has published a national security assessment addressing the potential impacts of global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. The document outlines risks to the UK's food supply, economy, and international security.

The assessment, released by the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, was developed with input from analysts across HM Government. It applies structured uncertainty judgements and considers “reasonable worst-case” scenarios related to ecological risks.

According to the report, the degradation and possible collapse of global ecosystems present a serious threat to the UK’s food security, economic stability, and international security. The assessment highlights the country’s dependence on imported food, fertiliser, and other essential resources, noting that disruptions abroad could have direct effects on the UK.

Six ecosystems are identified as particularly critical: the Amazon and Congo rainforests, boreal forests, the Himalayas, coral reefs, and mangroves in Southeast Asia. The report states that the degradation of these regions could result in cascading impacts worldwide.

What the numbers show

• The assessment was published on 20 January 2026
• Six ecosystems are listed as critical in the report
• The Guardian reports some ecosystems may begin collapsing by 2030

The Joint Intelligence Committee, which oversees the UK’s security agencies MI5 and MI6, contributed to the assessment by applying intelligence analysis methods to ecological risks. This involvement reflects the integration of security perspectives into environmental risk assessments.

The Guardian reported that certain ecosystems, including coral reefs and boreal forests, may begin to collapse as early as 2030, with full degradation projected by 2050. These timelines are based on current assessments and structured planning scenarios.

Industry reaction

World Animal Protection UK stated that ecosystem collapse could result in global food shortages, increased prices, conflict, and displacement. The organisation noted that some effects, such as crop failures, extreme weather, and the spread of disease, are already being observed.

The assessment and related statements underline the interconnectedness of global ecosystems and the UK’s reliance on international supply chains. The publication of this report marks a procedural step in the government’s approach to integrating ecological risks into national security planning.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.