UN Synthesis Projects 6% Emissions Cut, CNA Reports

Global greenhouse-gas emissions are projected to decline 6% by 2035 in a UN Climate Change assessment of national climate contributions, according to CNA. The baseline and coverage underlying that reported figure have not been independently confirmed against the full report.

CNA's account also gives a conditional projection: the reduction would reach 9% by 2035 if countries implemented their plans in full and achieved the targets subject to conditions. Both figures describe projected reductions, not emissions cuts already achieved.

The assessment concerns nationally determined contributions, known as NDCs. According to CNA, these are submissions countries must make under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The UNFCCC's document index identifies the 2026 NDC Synthesis Report as an advance version, not yet edited, bearing the date October 26, 2026.

Submissions received between January 2024 and August 2026 form the assessment's coverage, according to CNA. Its account puts the number of countries included at 154, together accounting for 71% of emissions worldwide.

For context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sets out modeled pathways in its Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report with a greater than 50% likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C, allowing no overshoot or only limited overshoot. For those pathways, the median global greenhouse-gas reduction in 2035 is 60% relative to 2019, with a reported range of 49% to 77%.

The preceding year's UN projection put the emissions reduction by 2035 at 10%, according to CNA. That calculation was made with many national contributions still absent and before the United States was removed from the calculation, CNA said.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.