EU Assessment Finds Poland on Track for Emissions Target
Poland is on course to meet its 2030 emissions target under the Effort Sharing Regulation, but its projected land-use carbon removals fall short of a separate obligation, according to the European Commission. Its assessment of the country’s final updated National Energy and Climate Plan, published on 13 November 2026, calls for further action on removals.
For emissions covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation, the Commission says Poland’s plan projects a reduction of 19.4% from 2005 levels by 2030. That exceeds the 17.7% reduction target by 1.7 percentage points. The assessment puts emissions under the additional-measures scenario about 8% below those under existing measures, while stating that achieving the target requires substantial effort.
The carbon-removals requirement concerns land use, land-use change and forestry, known as LULUCF. According to the assessment, Poland must increase annual net removals by 3,278 kilotonnes of CO₂-equivalent relative to the 2016-2018 average by 2030. The plan’s projections leave a shortfall of 4,972 kilotonnes against that requirement.
Policies added to the plan cover forestry, agriculture and peatland restoration to increase removals, the Commission says, but more action remains necessary. Its assessment records land-use carbon absorption equivalent to about 7% of Poland’s total greenhouse-gas emissions in 2024. Net-removals performance was nevertheless worse than the 2016-2018 reference average by 23,564 kilotonnes of CO₂-equivalent.
The Commission also sets out the scope of the Effort Sharing Regulation assessment: covered sectors represented 56% of national greenhouse-gas emissions in 2024, with their share projected at 60% for 2030. Transport is projected to be the largest emissions source within that group. A comprehensive review in 2027 will establish final emissions figures for 2021-2025, according to the document.
On energy, the Commission says Poland’s renewable-energy contribution is consistent with the EU-wide 2030 target. It also finds alignment between the EU target and Poland’s energy-efficiency contributions for both primary and final consumption. The assessment calls for more renewable-energy measures covering transport, industry, and heating and cooling, alongside stronger policies for energy savings in buildings.
The assessment also requests a phase-out of fossil-fuel subsidies. According to the document, Poland’s plan neither describes those subsidies in detail nor provides a clear schedule for ending them.
EU countries are scheduled to report in March 2027 on implementation of their National Energy and Climate Plans. The Commission says its monitoring of progress towards the 2030 energy and climate targets will continue.
* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.