Fossil-Fuel CO₂ Emissions Projected to Fall in 2026

Global fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions are projected to reach 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, down 0.4% from 2025, according to the Global Carbon Budget. The estimate remains uncertain: CICERO Center for International Climate Research puts the range for the Global Carbon Project’s forecast between a decline of 1.5% and growth of 0.6%.

The projection for total CO₂ emissions runs in the opposite direction when land-use change is included. The assessment puts that total at 43.3 billion tonnes for 2026, compared with 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025. Of the projected 2026 total, 5.1 billion tonnes would come from land-use change.

The budget accounts for fossil-fuel emissions, including those from cement production, separately from emissions linked to changes in land use. The latter category covers activities such as deforestation and reforestation. The Global Carbon Project published the assessment, its 21st annual edition, on November 10, 2026.

Within the fossil-fuel forecast, the projected changes differ by fuel. Coal-related CO₂ emissions are projected to increase by 0.6% in 2026, while the assessment puts the declines for oil and gas at 1.9% and 0.3%, respectively.

In its account of the forecast, the Global Carbon Project links the projected overall reduction with developments including the expansion of wind and solar power and the Iran conflict. It characterises the anticipated reduction in oil emissions as likely to be a temporary response to the energy shock resulting from that conflict.

According to the Associated Press, an annual decrease in 2026 would be the first since the COVID-19 pandemic year of 2020. A paper in Nature Climate Change by researchers associated with the Global Carbon Project puts average annual growth in fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions at 0.8% over 2019–2025, before the forecast reduction.

The Global Carbon Project said the expansion of clean energy has not yet reached the level needed to establish a sustained fall in global fossil-fuel emissions. The accompanying Nature Climate Change study projects that, through 2028, solar generation, wind power and electric vehicles will offset between 64% and 79% of the emissions associated with increasing energy demand. In the study’s assessment, securing a peak followed by declining emissions requires faster deployment of clean technologies.

* This article is based on publicly available information at the time of writing.